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The primary season of 2012 is turning into the “year of the anti-incumbent”. In state after state, incumbents in the House and Senate are falling to their challengers. Thus far, 15 incumbents have failed to make it past a primary challenger. The record over the past 50 years is 20 incumbents defeated during the 1992 election cycle.

Are these defeats the result of anti-incumbent sentiments, or are they a direct result of mandatory redistricting following the census? 

The 1992 election followed the 1990 census and fighting over Congressional districts in many states. A wave of anti-incumbent motivations was credited for 20 individuals losing their seats that year.

This year is the first election using new districts drawn following the 2010 census. Already, the number of individuals losing seats has reached 15. In 1992, 19 of the 20 were from the House of Representatives. This year, 13 Representatives have lost their primaries.

Anti-incumbent sentiment is often attributed to cycles of individuals losing their seats in Congress. While some of the voters my have anti-incumbent feelings while casting their ballots, it appears the shape and makeup of districts plays a bigger role than either party wishes to admit.

When one party starts winning seats, they want to say it’s because they guys in power lost the public trust. The real story following a census is the new districts. Take 2002 for example.

The Congress and White House were under Republican control. It was a year after September 11th. Nine incumbents lost their seats in Congress despite high polling for the Republican party and Congress as a whole. These nine were ousted in primaries in newly redrawn districts.

This does not mean waves of anti-incumbency do not occur. In fact, they have changed Congress from one party to another. However, these waves typically appear in the elections after redistricting has already been voted. Elections in years ending in 4, 6, 8, and 0 often reflect the sentiments of the voters towards the party in power more than elections in years ending in 2.

This election cycle, we will see the results of redistricting and the census. In 2014, we may see true anti-incumbency, but 2012 is the year of the Congressional map.